By SKM
April 27, 2025
ISLAMABAD: While initial speculation attributed the surge to flash floods allegedly triggered by India following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a detailed analysis of meteorological data suggests a different explanation. The recent surge in the Jhelum River’s water flow is most likely the result of exceptional rainfall in the Kashmir Valley, as supported by meteorological data.
Between April 18 and April 24, 2025, the Kashmir Valley experienced rainfall levels 126.82% above normal, reveals the fact-finding report authored by Arshad H Abbasi, an imminent water expert who has been a part of track-2 water diplomacy with India. He also worked as a transboundary water expert with China, Bangladesh and Central Asia.
“The recent investigations have focused on the unusual increase in water levels observed in the Jhelum River, which has sparked widespread discussion about its underlying causes.”
“This substantial rainfall is the most likely cause of the heightened river flow, rather than any immediate actions tied to the suspension of the Treaty. Strategic Immediate Implications of IWT Suspension India’s decision to suspend the IWT has raised concerns about potential measures that could adversely impact Pakistan. Among these measures is the flushing of reservoirs for hydropower generation, a practice permitted under the treaty only during the peak monsoon season in August.”
However, with the treaty currently in suspension, the report says, India can carry out reservoir flushing at any time. If done during Pakistan’s sowing season, such actions could disrupt irrigation and agricultural activities in Punjab, a region heavily reliant on the Indus River and its tributaries. Hydropower Infrastructure on the Jhelum River India operates two major hydropower projects on the Jhelum River: the Lower Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Baramulla and the Uri-I Hydroelectric Project. While these facilities grant India limited control over regulating flows in the Jhelum, it is expected that strategic reservoir flushing is more likely to be carried out on the Chenab River, due to its higher strategic significance.
The fact-facing report also says that the declaration of National Waterway-49 (NW-49) India’s designation of National Waterway-49 (NW-49) as part of its Inland Water Transport (IWT) network has introduced further complexities in regional water management and Pakistan’s water rights. Experts had forewarned Pakistan in January 2022 about India’s plans to operationalize inland water transport on the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus Rivers. This initiative is perceived by Pakistan as a revival of the Tulbul Navigation Project, also known as the Wular Barrage. Officially intended to regulate water flow for maintaining navigable depths during winter, Pakistan views it as a storage barrage with a capacity of approximately 0.3 million acre-feet.
“Rapid Progress on Inland Water Transport Ignoring Pakistan’s objections, India has accelerated the development of its inland water transport system. Seven floating jetties have already been completed along the stretch from Anantnag to Wular Lake. This project enables India to manage river flows more effectively, ensuring consistent navigation during low-flow periods and potentially increasing water discharge during flood seasons. These capabilities could exacerbate Pakistan’s vulnerability in terms of irrigation and agriculture, particularly in regions reliant on the Indus River system.”
However, India’s strategic actions following the suspension of the IWT, including reservoir flushing and the operationalization of NW-49, highlight the increasing complexities of water resource management in the region.
These developments pose significant challenges to Pakistan’s agricultural and irrigation systems. Special Note Please note that transboundary river management is a highly complex and sensitive subject that demands the utmost expertise and caution. It is essential to avoid the dissemination of pseudoscience or unverified information, or posts as this topic is critical to national sovereignty. Water security serves as the foundation for energy security (via hydropower), food security, and overall economic stability. Ends
