By SKM
September 29, 2025
ISLAMABAD: The Spokesperson of the Ministry of Energy (Power Division), while responding to recent comments made by the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) regarding the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025–2035, has termed the remarks as flawed and devoid of factual accuracy. The Ministry emphasized that while it welcomes open debate and constructive criticism, such discussions must be grounded in evidence and a comprehensive understanding of the power planning process. Misrepresenting the facts may lead to confusion and undermine the credibility of the energy planning framework.
The Spokesperson clarified that IGCEP 2025–2035 marks a significant shift in Pakistan’s power sector planning, with a strong focus on affordability, transparency, and long-term sustainability. Compared to previous versions, the revised plan excludes approximately 7,000 MW of committed projects that are no longer needed, resulting in estimated savings of USD 17 billion. These savings are expected to translate into a reduction in electricity prices by Rs. 4.96 per unit (kWh). All candidate projects in the plan have been selected using a least-cost optimization approach to ensure the provision of reliable and affordable electricity for consumers.
In response to APTMA’s critique of the demand forecasting methodology, the Spokesperson stated that the forecasting model used in the IGCEP is time-tested and has been validated by international experts. The global forecast is developed through regression modeling, where GDP growth and electricity prices serve as the primary independent variables. These indicators are internationally recognized as accurate predictors of electricity demand. Contrary to the claims made, population growth is not used as a driver in the model. Multiple scenarios are created and rigorously tested to eliminate any inconsistencies or statistically unreliable relationships.
To further validate the demand projections, a bottom-up forecast is also developed by each Distribution Company (DISCO), in accordance with the Grid Code 2023. These forecasts are based on feeder-level data and planned loads from residential, industrial, and other consumer categories. They also account for rooftop solar adoption, captive generation, energy efficiency initiatives, and other emerging trends. The System Operator consolidates these bottom-up forecasts at the national level and compares them with the regression-based global forecast. The two sets of forecasts are consistently found to be within a close and acceptable range, ensuring accuracy and reliability.
The Spokesperson categorically rejected the assertion that the IGCEP ignores the impact of distributed solar generation and substitution effects. He stated that these factors are explicitly considered in the current IGCEP iteration, and any claim to the contrary is inaccurate. The Ministry continues to evolve its planning process to account for emerging technologies and changing consumer behaviors.
Additionally, the IGCEP 2025–2035 promotes a transition toward greater economic efficiency and transparency. Projects deemed expensive or unnecessary under current circumstances have been excluded. Priority has been given to indigenous and renewable resources such as hydropower, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. This strategic pivot away from imported fuels like RLNG and imported coal is expected to save billions in foreign exchange and enhance the country’s energy security. Strategic projects that fall outside the least-cost framework are subject to the Least Cost Violation (LCV) methodology, whereby any cost excess is absorbed by the sponsoring agency, not the consumer.
Responding to concerns raised about higher capacity payments, the Spokesperson explained that recent additions to the generation fleet—including nuclear and local coal-based plants—are part of a broader strategy to achieve least-cost energy generation while enhancing energy security. While these projects may involve higher fixed costs, they offer significantly lower variable (fuel) costs, thereby reducing the overall cost of electricity. As the power mix gradually incorporates more renewables and older thermal plants are phased out, capacity payments will stabilize and eventually decline, creating a more affordable and sustainable energy system.
The Spokesperson also emphasized that long-term power planning cannot rely solely on current demand figures. The IGCEP is designed to anticipate demand growth over a 10 to 20-year horizon, factoring in trends such as urbanization, industrial expansion, the rise of electric vehicles, increased cooling needs, and new technologies. This long-term outlook is crucial to ensuring that Pakistan’s power infrastructure is equipped to meet future needs. The Grid Code provides a transparent and evidence-based framework for such forecasting, ensuring that all stakeholders have confidence in the planning process.
In conclusion, the Spokesperson reaffirmed the Ministry’s commitment to formulating power plans that are realistic, reliable, and affordable. The IGCEP 2025–2035 reflects this commitment by prioritizing sustainability, optimizing costs, and safeguarding national energy security. The Ministry encourages all stakeholders to engage in constructive, informed dialogue as Pakistan navigates its energy transition. Ends
