By SKM
October 29, 2025
ISLAMABAD: Prices of petroleum products are expected to rise again from November 1, with petrol likely to become costlier by Rs1.48 per litre and high-speed diesel (HSD) by Rs1.38 per litre, driven by volatility in global oil markets following U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top energy firms.
According to initial calculations shared with the government, kerosene oil may see the sharpest increase of Rs2.34 per litre, while light diesel oil (LDO) could edge up by Re0.49 per litre. The final price adjustment will be made on October 31 after reviewing the full fortnight’s import and exchange rate data.
If the current trend continues, consumer prices for the next fortnight are likely to settle at Rs264.50 per litre for petrol, Rs276.80 for diesel, Rs184.05 for kerosene, and Rs163.25 for LDO.
At the refinery level, ex-refinery prices are projected at Rs158.75 per litre for petrol, Rs174.40 for HSD, Rs155.64 for kerosene, and Rs141.44 for LDO, reflecting the upward movement in international crude. Officials said the final figures could vary slightly in the remaining three days of the fortnight.
Global Market Pressure
International oil prices initially spiked after the United States blacklisted Russia’s two largest oil producers — Rosneft and Lukoil — but the rally soon lost momentum as traders questioned the long-term impact of the sanctions.
Market analysts at SEB and Barclays said the restrictions may cause “short-term friction” rather than a lasting disruption to Russian oil exports, noting President Trump’s unpredictable approach to sanctions.
The move has already forced Indian refiners to seek alternative supplies, while Chinese state-owned oil companies have temporarily halted Russian crude purchases. However, analysts say the market’s reaction was largely “knee-jerk,” with prices normalizing as traders reassessed the likelihood of a prolonged supply shock.
High Taxes Keep Prices Elevated
Despite modest movements in global crude, domestic fuel prices remain elevated due to heavy taxation. Consumers currently pay Rs80.52 per litre on petrol and Rs79.51 per litre on diesel in petroleum and carbon levies, along with inland freight equalization margins of Rs8.69 and Rs6.19 per litre, respectively.
These levies, combined with exchange rate adjustments and international price swings, continue to exert upward pressure on inflation and transportation costs. Ends
