By SKM
October 29, 2025
ISLAMABAD: After weeks of calm, Pakistan’s national gas transmission system has once again entered the danger zone — its main pipeline swelling beyond safe pressure limits and putting the country’s energy backbone at risk of a crippling rupture.
Official data reviewed on Wednesday shows the “line pack” — a technical measure of gas volume and pressure — has surged to 5.177 billion cubic feet (BCF), breaching the 5 BCF threshold widely considered the red line for system stability.
Officials at Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), which operates the northern transmission network, say the pressure spike stems largely from a sharp fall in gas consumption by the power sector. Power plants, once the top buyers of re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG), are currently drawing just 293 million cubic feet (MMcf) of imported fuel — far below contracted levels.
Idle Power Plants, Rising Pressure
The irony is stark: despite Pakistan’s long-term “take-or-pay” LNG contracts — two with QatarEnergy and one with Italy’s ENI, each backed by sovereign guarantees — the gas isn’t being burned. Instead, it’s building up in the system, creating a physical and financial burden.
To prevent the pressure from escalating further, authorities have curtailed local gas production by roughly 300 MMcf per day, a move that has alarmed exploration and production (E&P) companies. Several operators warn that forced well shutdowns can permanently damage gas reservoirs, leading to costly, and sometimes irreversible, production losses.
In the past, companies spent over $1 million per well trying to revive fields that were sealed under similar circumstances — with mixed results.
Adding to the strain, gas supplies from the Bettani field were suspended on October 18 following a sabotage attack that ruptured an 8-inch pipeline, while output from the Dakhni plant remains offline due to an annual maintenance turnaround that began mid-October.
Ripple Effect on Refineries and Industry
The Attock Refinery Limited (ARL) has repeatedly warned that production cuts in gas fields are shrinking domestic crude supplies, limiting its refining capacity and forcing reliance on imported inputs.
Meanwhile, the Power Division defends its cautious dispatch strategy. Officials say RLNG-based plants are only operated when they fall within the economic merit order (EMO) — a system designed to prioritize cheaper, local-fuel power sources to avoid raising the national electricity tariff.
“When RLNG plants don’t fit the merit order, we keep them offline,” said a senior energy official. “Running them at full capacity would inflate the overall cost of electricity and push up monthly fuel adjustment charges for consumers.”
Industrial Demand Plummets
The export-oriented industrial sector has also slashed its RLNG usage from 350–400 MMcf a day to as little as 60–70 MMcf, as the price for captive power plants has soared to Rs3,500 per MMBtu plus a 10% off-grid levy. The levy will climb to 15% in January 2026 and 20% in August 2026, lifting the effective cost to Rs4,297 per MMBtu — about US$15.36, nearly double current international spot prices.
With domestic demand collapsing, Pakistan has begun exploring options to resell surplus LNG cargoes abroad. Officials confirm ongoing negotiations to offload 24 QatarEnergy cargoes and 11 from ENI in 2026 — a sharp reversal for a country once plagued by gas shortages.
An Energy Paradox
Analysts describe the situation as an energy paradox: Pakistan now faces excess supply risk in a system historically defined by scarcity.
“Too much gas in the pipeline might sound like a luxury, but it’s a real operational hazard,” said one energy expert. “If pressure exceeds tolerance limits, even a minor rupture could cripple transmission — halting fuel supply to industries, power plants, and homes nationwide.”
The next few days, officials say, will be crucial. Unless gas offtake rises or production is scaled back further, the country’s main pipeline — once its economic lifeline — could turn into a ticking time bomb. Ends
