By SKM
January 21, 2025
ISLAMABAD: The national gas network system has again landed in the red zone as the line pack pressure in the main gas pipeline has again increased to 5.26 billion cubic feet (bcf). The 5bcf is the danger mark when exceeded, the pipeline can burst any time.
As per the latest data about the gas line pack available with the Exclusivewaves.com.pk, the gas demand of the domestic sector has increased to 950 mmcfd and RLNG of 450 mmcfd is being diverted to residential consumers, but the power sector is not consuming the RLNG intake against its demand of 400 mmcfd. It is now getting below 300 mmcfd for power generation. “The demand of electricity is hovering in the range of 10,000-13000 MW despite hydro generation plummeting to less than 1000 MW because of the ongoing canal closures which will last till January 31, 2025.”
The Power Division says that it runs the RLNG-based power plants as the Economic Merit Order (EMO) and it first runs those plants, which are cheaper or must-run power plants.
The data shows that the domestic sector is now the biggest consumer of RLNG and its diversion will cost the system up to over Rs200 billion which is to appear in the gas circular debt taking it to Rs2900 billion from the existing Rs2700 billion.
The gas consumption has gone down by 150 mmcf per month which is why 18 LNG cargoes have become operational. And the captive power plants are also going to be disconnected by January 31, 2025 and they will be connected to the grid electricity under the structural benchmark of IMF under its loan program of $7 billion. This will increase the number of additional LNG cargoes up to 30 in numbers. The PLL-KE LNG supply deal will end by 2025 and if it is not extended, the number of additional RLNG cargoes will go up by 6 to 36.
The gas consumption has tremendously reduced mainly because of lower GDP growth and high gas tariffs. So far the government has managed to shift 5LNG cargoes to 2026 which was to be imported in 2025 and is also in contact with Qatar to defer the import of five LNG cargoes to 2026. Every year, Pakistan imports 120 LNG cargoes as it imports 10 cargoes every month—9 cargoes from Qatar a month and one cargo from ENI.
The line pack data as of January 21, 2024 reveals that the SNGPL system is getting per day RLNG intake of 976 mmcfd and indigenous gas of 741 mmcf per day. The fertilizer sector is consumer just62 and export and no export industry 250 mmcfd. However, the gas consumption by Agritech remained suspended from January 20, 2025 due to Annual Turnaround of their plant for about 01 month.
However, there is a low gas input (171 MMCF) from MOL (CPF) due to some problems at their end. The current input rate stands 179 MMCFD. Ends
